Business Cycles
Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting
614 pages
|
88 tables, 26 figures
|
6 x 9
|
© 1992
- Contents
Table of Contents
Contents
Acknowledgments
Preface
I: Theories and Evidence
1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations
4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
II: History and Measurement
6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
7: Business Cycles and Growth
8: The Regularity of Business Cycles
9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
III: Indicators
10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun
IV: Forecasting
13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros
18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
References
Author Index
Subject Index
Preface
I: Theories and Evidence
1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview
2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective
3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations
4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements
5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau
II: History and Measurement
6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction
7: Business Cycles and Growth
8: The Regularity of Business Cycles
9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy
III: Indicators
10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses
11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators
12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun
IV: Forecasting
13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions
14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts
15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts
16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros
18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting
References
Author Index
Subject Index
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