Paper $57.95 ISBN: 9789087280079 Published January 2007 For sale only in the United States, its dependencies, the Philippines, and Canada

Case Studies in Archaeological Predictive Modeling

Philip Verhagen

Case Studies in Archaeological Predictive Modeling

Philip Verhagen

Distributed for Leiden University Press

224 pages | 6-1/8 x 9-1/4 | © 2007
Paper $57.95 ISBN: 9789087280079 Published January 2007 For sale only in the United States, its dependencies, the Philippines, and Canada
Dutch archaeology has experienced profound changes in recent years. This has led to an increasing use of archaeological predictive modelling, a technique that uses information about the location of known early human settlements to predict where additional settlements may have been located. Case Studies in Archaeological Predictive Modelling is the product of a decade of work by Philip Verhagen as a specialist in geographical information systems at RAAP Archeologisch Adviesbureau BV, one of the leading organizations in the field; the case studies presented here provide an overview of the field and point to potential future areas of research.
Contents
PREFACE
 
CHAPTER 1: A Condensed History of Predictive Modelling in Archaeology
1.1. INTRODUCTION
1.2. THE ORIGINS OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL PREDICTIVE MODELLING
1.3. GIS IN ARCHAEOLOGY
1.4. THE CONTROVERSY ON PREDICTIVE MODELLING
1.5. PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN CULTURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
1.6. PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN THE NETHERLANDS
1.7. THE BBO PREDICTIVE MODELLING PROJECT
 
PART 1: PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
 
CHAPTER 2: The Use of Predictive Modeling for Guiding the Archaeological Survey of Roman Pottery Kilns in the Argonne Region (Northeastern France)
2.1. INTRODUCTION
2.2. ARCHAEOLOGICAL CONTEXT
2.3. AREA DESCRIPTION
2.4. THE FIRST PREDICTIVE MODEL
2.5. THE SECOND PREDICTIVE MODEL
2.6. THE FINAL MODEL
2.7. CONCLUSIONS
 
CHAPTER 3: The hidden reserve. Predictive modelling of buried archaeological sites in the Tricastin-Valdaine region (Middle Rhône Valley, France)
3.1. INTRODUCTION
3.2. THE PREDICTIVE MODEL
3.3. THE PREDICTIVE MODEL: METHODS APPLIED
3.4. THE PREDICTIVE MODEL: RESULTS OF SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS
3.5. EXTRAPOLATING SITE DENSITIES
3.6. CONCLUSIONS
 
CHAPTER 4: Quantifying the Qualified: the Use of Multicriteria Methods and Bayesian Statistics for the Development of Archaeological Predictive Models
4.1. INTRODUCTION
4.2. MULTICRITERIA DECISION MAKING AND ITS RELEVANCE TO PREDICTIVE MODELING
4.3. BAYESIAN STATISTICS AND PREDICTIVE MAPPING
4.4. APPLICATION: THE PREDICTIVE MAP OF EDE
4.5. CONCLUSIONS
 
PART 2: ARCHAEOLOGICAL PROSPECTION, SAMPLING AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING
 
CHAPTER 5: Establishing optimal core sampling strategies: theory, simulation and practical implications
5.1. INTRODUCTION
5.2. CORE SAMPLING: THE BASICS
5.3. STATISTICAL BACKGROUND
5.4. ESTABLISHING AN OPTIMAL CORE SAMPLING STRATEGY: THE CASE OF ZUTPHEN-OOIJERHOEK
5.5. CONCLUSIONS
 
CHAPTER 6: Prospection strategies and archaeological predictive modelling
6.1. INTRODUCTION
6.2. PROSPECTION STRATEGIES
6.3. CONTROLLING SURVEY BIASES
6.4. INTERSECTION PROBABILITY
6.5. SURVEY INTENSITY AND TESTING OF PREDICTIVE MODELS
6.6. DETECTION PROBABILITY
6.7. LARGE OR SMALL INTERVENTIONS?
6.8. CONCLUSIONS
 
CHAPTER 7: Predictive models put to the test
7.1. INTRODUCTION
7.2. MODEL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
7.3. VALIDATION OF MODEL PERFORMANCE
7.4. STATISTICAL TESTING AND PREDICTIVE MODELS
7.5. COLLECTING DATA FOR INDEPENDENT TESTING
7.6. THE TEST GROUND REVISITED
7.7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
 
PART 3: ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF PREDICTIVE MODELLING
 
CHAPTER 8: Modelling Prehistoric Land Use Distribution in the Río Aguas Valley (S.E. Spain)
8.1. INTRODUCTION
8.2. ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT
8.3. ARCHAEOLOGICAL CONTEXT
8.4. AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL OF THE RÍO AGUAS VALLEY
8.5. LAND SUITABILITY: A FUNCTION OF POTENTIAL AND ACCESSIBILITY
8.6. ESTIMATION OF LAND SURFACE NEEDED FOR AGRICULTURE
8.7. FINDING THE LAND
8.8. RESULTS
8.9. CONCLUSIONS
 
CHAPTER 9: Some considerations on the use of archaeological land evaluation
9.1. INTRODUCTION
9.2. ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR LAND SUITABILITY
9.3. TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT: HYDRAULIC INFRASTRUCTURE
9.4. THE HUMAN PERCEPTION OF SUITABILITY
9.5. CONCLUSIONS
 
CHAPTER 10: First thoughts on the incorporation of cultural variables into predictive modelling
10.1. INTRODUCTION
10.2. PREDICTIVE MODELLING AND ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINISM
10.3. CULTURAL VARIABLES: WHAT ARE THEY?
10.4. HOW TO PROCEED?
10.5. CONCLUSIONS
 
EPILOGUE: WHITHER ARCHAEOLOGICAL PREDICTIVE MODELLING?
 
SAMENVATTING
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